The Long Term Prospects of the World Energy Supply

Mr Robert Priddle, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, introduced the discussion with a talk about the long-term prospects of the world energy supply. This is a very important subject as it allows us to identify the likely future trends in world energy supply and demand. He presented the major trends and discussed several underlying major issues.

He presented the long-term outlook undertaken by the IEA which consists inprojecting the energy future up to 2020 on a “Business-As-Usual” basis

Some of their key assumptions are that:
The world economy will continue to grow at a projected rate of 3.1% per annum, (a similar rate to that of the past 25 years);

In Western Europe the total European energy demand will increase by 30% between 1995 and 2020.

Looking in the longer term, Mr Priddle said that the picture might begin to change.

The energy-use pattern in 2050 is that final energy use will become more flexible. There will be more emphasis on clean energy services. As for the energy supply pattern in 2050, oil and gas will still provide huge quantities of energy throughout 2050. Non-conventional oil and gas resources will have entered the picture. Substitute fuels will still eventually have to be found. Renewables may well emerge as the major source of energy. Fuel cell technologies can be expected to become competitive. Nuclear fission will depend on improved technology, commercial viability and public acceptability.

One of the major issues is to know whether there will there be enough liquid fuel to meet the growing demand for oil? Mr Priddle offers a rather optimistic answer: there will be no shortage in global energy supply, at least for the next twenty or thirty years. There are unconventional oil sources, other fossil fuels resources are still abundant and there is a considerable amount of non-fossil energy resources. In relation to oil supply, the world needs to manage two transitions over the next 50 years: the first will be the transition to renewed dependence on Middle-East oil; and the second from Middle-East oil to unconventional oil.

Mr Priddle also discussed the environmental challenges.

The most important energy-related challenge will be global climate destabilisation caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Global determination to address climate change was reflected in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and subsequently reinforced through the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol by 180 countries. According to Mr Priddle, the flexibility mechanisms can make a significant contribution to achieving the targets.

Furthermore, meeting the Kyoto targets has an economic and political price. Governments need to elaborate and implement cost-effective policies and measures.

The second important challenge for IEA/OECD governments is effectively to engage the developing countries in the battle against global climate change as the most rapid increases in energy-related CO2 emissions will come from non-OECD countries. In this area industrialised countries have agreed to take the first steps. But it is clear that it will never be possible to stabilize the greenhouse gas concentrations without the participation of developing countries.
The Clean Development mechanism offers the possibility to promote continued economic and social growth in developing countries while limiting the growth of CO2 emissions.